You win some, you lose some.
In 2014, Netherlands manager Louis van Gaal made an unusual substitution as his team were heading towards penalties against Costa Rica at the World Cup. He replaced Jasper Cillessen with Tim Krul in the 120th minute and it was a success as Krul saved two penalties and the Oranje made it to the semi-finals.
12 years later and Tony Popović tried a similar tactic for Australia, replacing Patrick Beach for Aussie #1 Mat Ryan who had been benched for the match. Sadly it didn’t work out for Popović and Egypt won 4–2 on penalties. But was the substitution the right call? Daryl Dao of Talking Tactics reckons it was and he has data and experience to prove it.
In an article titled “Tony Popović was right”, Dao argued that the stats made a more compelling case for Ryan to be the goalkeeper of choice for the shootout, even though Beach had good shot-stopping stats in normal time. He also mentioned the “human element” of the decision, and making a judgement call at the time regardless of Egypt’s preparations (including a cheeky look at their laptop before the spot kicks to see how Ryan did in previous shootouts):
Another argument that supported the substitution was that Ryan was way more experienced and could have relied on his experience to make a better decision than Beach could have. It is important to remember that last season was Beach’s second full professional season where he got to play with Melbourne City after spending a few years on the bench and with the B team of Central Coast Mariners. While it is hard to doubt that Beach has the potential to be the Socceroos’ number 1 in the future, he still needs a lot more confidence and experience to make the right decision in a high pressure moment like a World Cup penalty shootout.
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Popović and his coaching staff could either have known or have not known this, depending on how thorough their preparation was. Thus, they could only prepare for what they knew at the time, which was that Ryan was the more prepared keeper to face a penalty shootout. Many could say that it was a substitution that felt out of the blue, but it was totally not because it was definitely planned out by the Socceroos’ coaching staff beforehand. They knew they wanted to drag the match into the penalty shootout, where they would have more chance to win, and prepared for such scenario by leaving out a substitution to bring Ryan on for Beach.
For me, the substitution was always a risk. Whether it paid off or not, Australia didn’t play all that well in normal or extra time and, like Dao said, that’s where the focus should have been. But I knew that the substitution would be the scapegoat had it not paid off and it wouldn’t surprise me if this eventually cost him his job such is the fickle world of football management and a need for success.